What the 2025 Fall Market Could Look Like
Thursday, October 2, 2025
By Shaun Bernstein for REALTOR.ca
At the start of the year, Canadian economists made their predictions of how they thought the national housing market would move for 2025. Yet, just like with the weather, sometimes there are fluctuations no one can quite predict. In this case those changes started south of the border.
So where is the housing market going for the rest of the year? First we need to look back a bit in order to get a clearer picture moving forward.
How tariffs changed real estate markets for 2025
Canadian home sales are rebounding heading into fall
How will local real estate markets fare to close out 2025?
How tariffs changed real estate markets for 2025
The initial predictions for the market were a 8.6% rebound year-over-year from a sluggish 2024, says Ryan Biln, Economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). With interest rates steadily declining and pent-up demand waiting for more affordable pricing, it would seem that 2025 would have been the year for home buyers to enter the market in impressive numbers.
Instead, the first half of the year started slowly, in large part thanks to concerns about tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The unpredictability of the tariff announcements meant buyers were skittish about locking in investments, especially if they worked in industries that were threatened by large-scale job losses. Those economic worries ultimately translated into broader uncertainty, particularly when Canadians were already impacted by rising inflation and wage stagnation.
Aside from our neighbours, influences from around the world changed the market as well. Restrictions on foreign buyers purchasing residential real estate had led to a drop in overseas investment.
Changes in foreign involvement in Canada’s real estate markets have impacted the rental market as well. Over the last several months, restrictions on foreign students obtaining study permits for Canadian schools has led to a significant cooling off in the rental market, particularly near colleges and universities.
Biln notes there have also been significant changes in Canada’s condo markets, particularly in larger cities like Toronto and Vancouver. Sale prices on condo units have decreased significantly, but the inventory that is flooding the market is not for everyone. For example, a one-bedroom or two-bedroom unit holds little appeal for a family with several children. For some pre-construction properties, Biln says buyers have begun walking away from their deposit so as not to lose more money on their investment.
Canadian home sales are rebounding heading into fall
While the year may have started off slowly, things may be looking up, albeit cautiously. Biln explains the national market just reached its fifth month of rising sales in a row, and the busiest August nationwide since 2021.
Biln says the market is in a balanced state across the country at the moment, although that does not paint an entirely accurate picture. Ontario and British Columbia, for example, are experiencing more buyers’ markets, while the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are leaning towards sellers’ markets. And with the latest Bank of Canada move to lower interest rates, it should mean a modest increase in market activity.
Biln notes buyers still have concerns. Continuous headlines about a potential recession has many buyers shopping more cautiously, or still waiting for further signs of stability. While economic headlines have been less prevalent last summer, uncertainty is still there, and that anxiety is definitely having some impact.
How will local real estate markets fare to close out 2025?
It is nearly impossible to determine the forecast for the Canadian housing market because, as Biln notes, it does not exist—at least not in that way. The country is highly regional, and so the market in Vancouver may look different than it does in Edmonton, which is different from Toronto which can be entirely different from Halifax.
In Toronto and Vancouver, the condo markets have taken a significant hit as noted earlier, which in those markets represents a sizable portion of the market. In parts of the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe there are signs of stabilization, and lower prices in some areas, but even these two cities are not identical. In Vancouver, affordability is still a challenge, but in the suburbs, the family-oriented housing market is, as Biln describes, “holding up better.”
In Edmonton, the market had started the year high, but appears to be cooling down moving into the fall. Housing prices are more affordable than nearby Calgary, and that affordability has made for a stronger market overall. However, the numbers show that local demand is still somewhat cautious. The Halifax market had seen a boom during the pandemic due to remote work and migration, and it remains active. While it has slowed slightly, other more-affordable markets throughout Nova Scotia have experienced a surge.
Have you thought about buying, selling or both this year but are not sure if now is the right time to do it? Call me and I’ll let you know what’s happening with the current market and based on your individual situation, let you know if you should buy and/or sell now, or wait.
However, if you are definitely going to be buying and/or selling in the next little while, please reach out. There is over 100 years of experience on The Brian Kondo Real Estate Team. With our proven Home Selling System, we help our clients sell their home fast, for top dollar, using our experience to make it a smooth and pleasant experience. Using our exclusive Home Buying System, we help our clients purchase the home of their dreams!
To find out more, please call me at 905-683-7800. You can also email me: brian@briankondo.com
Thanks For Reading Today’s BLOG!
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Brian Kondo
Sales Representative / Team Leader
The Brian Kondo Real Estate Team
Re/Max Hallmark First Group Realty Ltd.
905-683-7800 office
905-426-7484 direct
brian@briankondo.com
www.BrianKondo.com
www.BrianKondoTeam.com
Shaun Bernstein's article above was initially published on Realtor.ca. You can find it by clicking here.
| REALTOR.ca is the most popular and most trusted real estate website in Canada. Owned and operated by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), REALTOR.ca provides up-to-date and reliable information that makes finding your dream property easy and enjoyable. REALTOR.ca is popular with sellers, buyers, and renters and is accessible online and on mobile devices. |
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Shaun Bernstein |
About the Author Shaun Bernstein is the owner and Chief Storyteller of The Write Stuff Agency, based in Oshawa, Ontario. A journalist and lawyer by training, he focuses on helping business and professionals tell their stories better in a way that keeps their clients reading. Shaun's own story includes playing copious amounts of trivia, and a lot of half-finished home improvement projects. |
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